| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Southeast Missouri State | 42-24 | 1458.6 | -9.0 | 1449.6 | 88.1% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Arkansas | 14-56 | 1449.6 | -72.9 | 1376.7 | 11.4% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Iowa State | 16-24 | 1376.7 | +53.3 | 1430.0 | 5.4% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Kennesaw State | 21-28 | 1430.0 | -34.0 | 1396.0 | 72.4% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | UL Monroe | 16-28 | 1396.0 | -34.2 | 1361.8 | 59.9% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Texas State | 31-30 | 1361.8 | +25.9 | 1387.7 | 15.3% |
| 9 | Oct 14 2025 | W | South Alabama | 15-14 | 1393.2 | +15.2 | 1408.4 | 41.0% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Georgia Southern | 34-24 | 1408.4 | +18.7 | 1427.1 | 43.6% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Troy | 23-10 | 1427.1 | +32.6 | 1459.7 | 31.6% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Southern Miss | 21-27 | 1459.7 | -12.4 | 1447.3 | 46.4% |
| 14 | Nov 20 2025 | L | Louisiana | 30-34 | 1441.3 | -10.5 | 1430.8 | 45.7% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | App State | 30-29 | 1430.8 | +3.3 | 1434.1 | 55.1% |
| 18 | Dec 18 2025 | W | Missouri State | 34-28 | 1436.3 | +1.9 | 1438.2 | 55.6% |