| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | L | Memphis | 24-42 | 1452.3 | -2.5 | 1449.8 | 16.0% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | West Georgia | 52-7 | 1449.8 | -7.0 | 1442.9 | 99.0% |
| 3 | Sep 20 2026 | L | TCU | 7-31 | 1442.9 | +2.8 | 1445.7 | 10.4% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Kennesaw State | 17-14 | 1445.7 | -2.2 | 1443.5 | 57.4% |
| 5 | Oct 4 2026 | L | Louisiana | 20-23 | 1443.5 | +35.2 | 1478.7 | 24.7% |
| 6 | Oct 8 2026 | L | South Alabama | 49-56 | 1478.7 | -5.0 | 1473.7 | 40.3% |